民生证券：受益AI需求拉动 25Q4存储价格有望持续看涨

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities indicates that due to limited allocation of advanced process capacity to high-end server DRAM and HBM, the overall DRAM prices are expected to continue rising in Q4. Trendforce forecasts a 8-13% quarter-on-quarter increase in general DRAM prices by Q4 2025. Additionally, the shortage of HDD supply and extended lead times are driving CSPs to rapidly shift storage demand towards QLC eSSD, leading to significant market fluctuations and an anticipated 5-10% increase in NAND Flash contract prices across all product categories by Q4 2025 [1]. Demand Side - The transition from HDD to SSD/DRAM is accelerated by the AI era, where data volume is rapidly expanding from MB to EB/ZB levels. Applications like Sora 2 are further driving this growth. AI is transforming "cold data" into frequently accessed "warm/hot data," which enhances storage needs. The core of inference is shifting towards "storage-based computing," optimizing throughput and energy efficiency through a layered storage system involving HBM/DRAM+CXL+SSD [1]. Supply Side - The introduction of CBA and HBF technologies aims to overcome the limitations imposed by the "memory wall" on computing power. CBA technology significantly increases storage density per unit area and optimizes internal interconnect paths, being applied in next-generation DRAM and NAND technologies. Domestic leaders like Hefei Changxin and Yangtze Memory Technologies are also accelerating their advancements. HBF technology, inspired by HBM packaging design, offers 8-16 times the storage capacity and non-volatile storage advantages, alleviating heat management and energy cost pressures in AI data centers [2]. Equipment - The storage industry is expected to face a tight supply-demand situation, benefiting from increased capital expenditure (Capex) driven by AI demand and ongoing storage price increases. According to SEMI, the global NAND equipment market is projected to reach $13.7 billion and $15 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 42.5% and 9.7%. Innovations in storage architectures like 4F2 DRAM and 3D NAND are creating new opportunities for etching, deposition, and bonding equipment [3]. Investment Targets - Suggested companies to focus on include: 1) Demand side: Demingli (001309.SZ), Jiangbolong (301308.SZ), Shannon Semiconductor (300475.SZ), and Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) 2) Logic die foundry driven by CBA: Jinghe Integration (688249.SH) and Huahong (688347.SH) 3) Storage manufacturers benefiting from increased Capex: Tuojing Technology (688072.SH), Northern Huachuang (002371.SZ), Zhongwei Company (688012.SH), Huahai Qingke (688120.SH), Jingzhida (688627.SH), Huafeng Measurement and Control (688200.SH), and Changchuan Technology (300604.SH) [4].