新版路线图来了！15年后的汽车将会是啥样？

Core Viewpoint - The new "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" outlines the development blueprint for China's automotive industry towards 2040, emphasizing low-carbon, electrification, and intelligence as key directions for growth [1][2]. Group 1: Future Development Directions - The automotive industry in China is set to focus on "low-carbon, electrification, and intelligence," with a significant enhancement in global competitiveness by 2040, positioning itself among the world's leading automotive powers [2]. Group 2: Expected Technological Breakthroughs - Intelligent connected vehicles are expected to enter a rapid market development phase within the next 5 to 15 years, with high-level autonomous driving vehicles achieving large-scale application. Solid-state batteries are anticipated to see small-scale application by 2030 and large-scale global promotion by 2035 [3]. Group 3: Environmental Key Indicators - A new key indicator for carbon emission intensity has been introduced, aiming for a 60% reduction in average carbon emission intensity of passenger vehicles by 2040 compared to 2024. This shift indicates a broader evaluation of environmental impact, focusing on carbon metrics rather than just energy consumption [4]. Group 4: Future Vehicle Composition - The future automotive landscape will not see a complete replacement of fuel vehicles by new energy vehicles; instead, a "coexistence" of oil and electricity is expected. By 2040, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is projected to exceed 85%, with pure electric vehicles (BEV) accounting for 80%. Internal combustion engines will still play a significant role, with their sales proportion in new passenger vehicle sales remaining around one-third [5][6].