日本财务省手握2700亿美元弹药 但干预触发条件尚未满足

Group 1 - Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu issued a strong verbal warning regarding the yen's exchange rate, stating that the foreign exchange market is experiencing unilateral and rapid fluctuations, and reaffirmed the government's heightened vigilance towards market dynamics [1] - The yen depreciated over 4% against the dollar in October, making it the worst-performing currency among G10 currencies, attributed to expectations of a return to "Abenomics" policies under the new Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo [1] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates, with Governor Ueda Kazuo emphasizing that the central bank is not lagging behind the curve, which has contributed to downward pressure on the yen [1] Group 2 - Despite increased verbal interventions, major Wall Street financial institutions assess that the immediate risk of actual market intervention by Japanese authorities remains low, with the dollar expected to surpass 160 yen by April 2024 [2] - The Japanese government conducted two large-scale foreign exchange market interventions from April to July 2024, utilizing a total of approximately 15.3233 trillion yen (about 982.5 billion USD), marking a historical high for intervention scale [2] - Goldman Sachs noted that the yen does not appear to be at an exceptionally weak level, with recent movements closely tied to the repricing of fiscal risk premiums and changes in market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's short-term policies [2] Group 3 - Bank of America strategist Yamada Shuukei expressed a similar view, indicating that without excessive volatility or significant speculative positions, even if the dollar surpasses 155 yen, immediate government intervention is unlikely [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates that the Japanese Finance Ministry still has about 270 billion USD available for intervention, capable of replicating recent intervention scales before needing to sell long-term securities [3] - From a long-term perspective, Goldman Sachs expects the yen to gradually strengthen, driven by declining hedging costs and a weakening dollar index due to anticipated Fed rate cuts [3]