增速环比持续改善，创新药表现突出——三季报看，医药如何布局？

Overall Situation - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a revenue decline of 2% and a net profit drop of 1% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a further decline in net profit of 3% in Q3 2025 [1][2] - The innovative drug segment showed strong revenue growth in Q3 2025, particularly in Bio-Pharma, CXO, and upstream sectors, while overall revenue growth has remained flat or slightly declining since Q1 2023 [1][3] Performance by Sub-Sectors - Pharma: Revenue decreased by 1% YoY in Q3 2025, with a significant drop in net profit by 13% [2] - Bio-Tech: Revenue surged by 61% YoY in Q3 2025, indicating strong performance despite a net profit decline of 32% [2] - Bio-Pharma: Revenue growth of 18% YoY in Q3 2025, with net profit increasing by 151% [2] - CXO: Revenue growth of 10% YoY in Q3 2025, with net profit up by 51% [2] - Upstream: Revenue increased by 13% YoY in Q3 2025, with net profit rising by 49% [2] - Medical Devices: Revenue grew by 11% YoY in Q3 2025, while net profit increased by 8% [2] - IVD: Revenue declined by 11% YoY in Q3 2025, with a net profit drop of 17% [2] - High-value Consumables: Revenue growth of 8% YoY in Q3 2025, with net profit up by 3% [2] - Low-value Consumables: Revenue decreased by 6% YoY in Q3 2025, with a net profit decline of 19% [2] Future Outlook - Innovative Drugs: Q3 2025 is expected to be the most challenging quarter for many Pharma companies, but upcoming clinical data releases and new drug approvals in 2026 are anticipated to drive revenue and profit growth [3] - CXO: The sector is expected to recover, with external demand for CDMO services improving and domestic CRO demand stabilizing [5] - Upstream Research Services: Revenue growth is expected to continue as industry demand accelerates [6][7] - Medical Devices: The sector is projected to see continued improvement in Q4 2025, with inventory levels returning to normal and potential growth in high-value products [8] Investment Insights - The focus is shifting back to the fundamentals of the innovative drug industry, with a need for tangible actions from multinational corporations (MNCs) to validate their partnerships [4] - Investment opportunities may arise from companies with strong collaborations with MNCs, as their clinical pipelines gain recognition and valuation [4] - A diversified index-based approach is recommended for participating in the pharmaceutical sector, with specific ETFs focusing on innovative drugs and medical devices [9][10]