美股大牛市，突遭警告

Core Viewpoint - The recent bullish trend in the U.S. stock market is facing warnings from analysts, indicating potential risks of a market correction by the end of December, with the S&P 500 index possibly declining by 5% from its peak [1][3][4]. Market Sentiment and Indicators - Ed Yardeni, a prominent analyst, highlighted that the bullish sentiment among investors has reached extreme levels, with the ratio of bulls to bears rising to 4.27, surpassing the critical threshold of 4.00, which historically signals excessive optimism [4]. - The S&P 500 index has surged by 37% since early April, marking one of the longest bullish runs since 1950, with similar patterns occurring only five times in the past [4]. - The Nasdaq 100 index is trading 17% above its 200-day moving average, indicating a significant price gap that suggests the current rally may be overextended [5]. Liquidity Concerns - The U.S. financial system is showing signs of liquidity stress, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) rising by 18 basis points to 4.22%, the largest single-day increase in a year [7][8]. - The usage of the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) reached a historical high of $50.35 billion, indicating increasing reliance on liquidity support tools [7][8]. - The liquidity crisis is exacerbated by the U.S. government shutdown, which has drained market liquidity significantly, with the Treasury's cash balance increasing from $300 billion to $1 trillion over three months [8]. Potential Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that if the government reopens, it could lead to a rapid normalization of the repo market and a rebound in risk assets, as the Treasury would inject billions back into the market [9]. - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup anticipate that the government shutdown may end within two weeks, potentially leading to a significant influx of cash into the market [9].