智通财经网·2025-11-04 09:11Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities forecasts Xiaomi Group's revenue for 2025 and 2026 to reach 473.9 billion and 606.6 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth of 30% and 28% [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 43.3 billion and 54.4 billion CNY for the same years, reflecting year-on-year growth of 59% and 25% [1] - The target price is set at 58.8 HKD, with a "Buy" rating, indicating a favorable valuation for Xiaomi [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Xiaomi's revenue for Q3 is projected to reach 110.1 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 is expected to exceed 10.1 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 62% [1] - The automotive segment is anticipated to achieve profitability in Q3, with a delivery volume of 109,000 units [2] Smartphone Segment Analysis - The global smartphone shipment for Xiaomi in Q3 2025 is estimated at approximately 43.5 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.8% [1] - Xiaomi's global market share remains stable at 13.5% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones is expected to decline slightly due to changes in product mix, while the gross margin is projected to decrease to 11% [1] IOT and Internet Business - The IOT segment is expected to see a revenue growth of 5% year-on-year, despite high base effects and increased competition [2] - The internet business continues to show steady growth, maintaining strong gross margins [2] Automotive Business Outlook - The automotive segment is projected to see significant capacity improvements in the coming year, with a focus on new models and international expansion [2] - The ASP for vehicles is expected to increase due to higher deliveries of the YU7 model, although the gross margin may slightly decline to over 25% [2] - The delivery volume in September surpassed 40,000 units, with expectations for continued growth in October [2]