智通财经网·2025-11-04 09:17Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China's adjustment of the gold value-added tax (VAT) deduction policy aims to centralize regulation of investment product demand, which may lead to a shift in some demand towards gold ETFs due to reduced liquidity [1] Industry Summary - The new 7% tax will likely be passed on to consumers in the jewelry consumption sector, whether through direct sales or franchise channels [1] - The increase in VAT is expected to exert pressure on recent demand for gold products and reduce the arbitrage opportunities between investment and non-investment demand, such as converting gold bars into jewelry [1] - With enhanced regulatory scrutiny, the market is anticipated to further consolidate, with consumers potentially shifting from smaller shops to larger brands [1] Company Summary - Short-term demand for companies like Lao Pu Gold (06181) and Chow Tai Fook (01929) may face pressure; however, both are expected to further consolidate the market in the long term [1] - Assuming the VAT refund rate decreases from 13% to 6%, Lao Pu Gold's gross margin may experience a pressure of 3 to 4 percentage points; however, the company has already raised prices by over 20% recently, which may offset some of the impact [1] - Chow Tai Fook has recently increased the prices of weight-based gold products by 5%, transferring the margin pressure to consumers [1]