美元多空激战100关口 美联储内部分歧加剧

Core Insights - The US dollar index experienced fluctuations, briefly surpassing the 100 mark, and has risen for four consecutive trading days, currently trading around 99.80. The ongoing battle around the 100 level is influenced by increasing divisions within the Federal Reserve, weak economic data, and concerns over a government shutdown, although there are hidden supports within the US economy [1] - The primary driver for the dollar index's rise is a cautious shift in the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to 65%, down significantly from 94% a week prior. This change is attributed to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent statements indicating that the likelihood of a rate cut in December is far from certain, and policymakers should maintain a "wait-and-see" approach until official data is released [1] Technical Analysis - The daily chart of the dollar index shows that it has consistently held above the 99.36 level after breaking through it. The measured upward target is around 100.45, with the 100 mark serving as the first resistance level, followed by the measured target point of 100.45. Support for the dollar index is at 99.36, along with an upward trend line indicated in red on the chart [2]