杨德龙：全球股市仍处于牛市周期 A股港股整体估值水平依然较低

Market Overview - The market is experiencing increased volatility as it approaches the end of the year, with some investors taking profits while others are looking to buy quality stocks in anticipation of a favorable market in 2026 [1][2] - The index has recently broken the 4000-point mark, which is seen as a significant milestone, indicating the establishment of a bull market [1][2] Sector Performance - The market has shown clear differentiation among sectors, with technology stocks leading the gains while traditional sectors lag behind [2][3] - In the fourth quarter, the new energy sector has started to perform well, particularly in areas like solid-state batteries, energy storage, and renewable energy, indicating a potential turnaround for previously underperforming sectors [3] Investment Opportunities - There is a growing expectation that consumer stocks, especially those with strong brand value and stable dividend yields, may see valuation recovery in the coming year [3] - The AI sector, particularly humanoid robots, is viewed as a significant investment opportunity, with the potential to become a major industry following home appliances, smartphones, and electric vehicles [4] AI and Technology Trends - AI infrastructure, including computing power, algorithms, and semiconductor chips, has been a key focus area for innovation and investment [5] - Despite the potential for short-term corrections in AI-related stocks, long-term investors are encouraged to remain focused on this sector as it continues to lead market trends [5] Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown and ongoing economic challenges are raising concerns about the impact on the economy and investor confidence in the dollar [9] - The rising national debt and interest payments are leading some investors to prefer gold over the dollar, which may continue to affect the dollar's value [9][10] Global Market Dynamics - The recent positive performance in Asian markets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggests a global consensus on the current bull market, although valuations in these markets remain below historical averages [8] - The potential for a significant correction in U.S. tech stocks could have a ripple effect on A-shares, necessitating close monitoring of market conditions [8]