美国政府停摆35天 美债周二盘前走势分化

Core Points - Investors are closely monitoring the ongoing government shutdown, which has lasted for 35 days and is approaching the record length set from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019 [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased by 2.2 basis points to 4.085% [3] - The ISM manufacturing index for October was reported at 48.7%, below the expected 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points from September [3] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Insights - The lack of key economic reports due to the government shutdown has created uncertainty among investors, who are now looking to the ADP private employment report for insights into the U.S. economy [3] - Federal Reserve officials acknowledge that the absence of critical economic data has heightened uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and risks [3] - Fed Governor Cook indicated that risks related to employment and inflation have increased, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts at the upcoming December meeting [3][4] Market Reactions and Global Context - Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding the uncertainty of a December rate cut have caused market anxiety [4] - European Central Bank officials are advocating for a cautious approach, suggesting that premature adjustments to monetary policy could lead to market volatility [6] - In the UK, the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced plans to increase taxes in the upcoming autumn budget, addressing public finance pressures [6] Treasury Issuance and Debt Levels - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue a 6-week short-term bond worth $95 billion, with a 17-week short-term bond issuance planned for the following day [9] - As of October 31, the total U.S. federal debt has remained above $38 trillion for seven consecutive days, reaching a historical high of over $38.10 trillion on October 30 [9]