英财政大臣定调秋季预算案：抑制通胀为核心 为降息铺路

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, announced that the upcoming autumn budget on November 26 will focus on controlling inflation and creating conditions for the Bank of England to lower key interest rates [1][2] Group 1: Budget and Economic Policy - The autumn budget aims to control government debt while ensuring public service spending [1] - Reeves emphasized that her decisions will focus on reducing inflation to support economic growth and improve living costs for the public [1] - There is a possibility of increasing household taxes, as many economists believe that under constrained fiscal space, tax hikes may be the only viable option to achieve debt reduction, maintain public services, and stabilize the macroeconomy [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations - The market widely expects the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.00% during the meeting on November 7 [1] - Despite recent weak economic data opening the door for potential rate cuts, most economists believe policymakers will wait for more sustained evidence of cooling inflation and details from the autumn budget [2] - Current UK inflation is still nearly double the 2% target, leading to a cautious stance from the Bank of England [2] - Barclays and Goldman Sachs suggest that policymakers might consider a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% due to recent disappointing inflation, employment, and output data, although this expectation is not mainstream [2] - Investors are currently betting that the December 18 meeting will be a more likely window for rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut rising to nearly 60% [2] - The Bank of England faces challenges related to "data dependence" and "policy coordination," with short-term interest rate paths being influenced not only by inflation trends but also by the clarity of fiscal positions [2]