Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) is experiencing a downward trend, currently trading at 0.6510, with a decline of approximately 0.31% over five consecutive trading days [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to maintain the official cash rate at 3.6% during the November policy meeting, indicating a non-dovish stance despite the decision being in line with market expectations [1] - Recent inflation forecasts suggest that inflation will remain above target levels for several years, with core inflation not expected to return to the 2-3% target range until the end of 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the third quarter increased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter and 3.0% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations of 0.8% and 2.7% respectively [1] - The August CPI year-on-year jumped to 3.5%, surpassing the previous value of 3.0% and the market expectation of 3.1%, which has reduced market expectations for a rate cut by the RBA [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is in a rectangular consolidation pattern, with recent price action breaking below the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6535, suggesting weakened short-term price momentum [2] - Key support is identified at the psychological level of 0.6500; a break below this level could lead to a decline towards the lower boundary of the rectangular range at approximately 0.6460, and potentially test the five-month low of 0.6414 [2] - Resistance is noted at the 9-day EMA of 0.6535; a breakout above this level could strengthen bullish momentum, pushing the AUD/USD towards the significant level of 0.6600 and the upper boundary of the rectangular range at around 0.6630 [2]
澳洲联储维持利率不变 立场偏鹰
Jin Tou Wang·2025-11-04 10:08