欧洲央行按兵不动欧元缺乏上行动能

Core Viewpoint - The Euro to Japanese Yen exchange rate continues to decline, trading around 177.20, influenced by the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike and the new Japanese Prime Minister's fiscal expansion plans [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo hinted at a possible interest rate hike in December or early 2026 if economic and price trends align with expectations, which has led the market to reassess the outlook for the Yen [1] - The new Prime Minister, Suga Yoshihide, plans to implement more aggressive fiscal spending, which may conflict with monetary tightening goals, potentially delaying the Bank of Japan's rate hike [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market expects the European Central Bank to maintain interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, partially supporting the Euro's decline [1] - The new Finance Minister, Katayama Satsuki, clarified that she no longer adheres to the previously stated view of the Yen's fair value being in the 120-130 range, indicating a possible government intervention in the currency market to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Euro to Japanese Yen has fallen from a recent high of 179.00, breaking below the short-term support level of 177.50, with a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to 45, indicating a continued weak short-term trend [2] - If the exchange rate breaks below the 177.00 level, it may accelerate downward towards the 176.30 and 175.80 regions; conversely, a return above 178.00 could signal a potential rebound targeting 178.70 and 179.20 [2]