产能去化预期下，板块配置性价比高——三季报看，养殖如何布局？

Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry experienced a decline in performance in Q3 2025, particularly in the pig farming sector, while the white chicken farming sector showed growth [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Summary - The pig farming sector generated revenue of 101.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.75% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.69% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company in the pig farming sector was 6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 67.14% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 27.21% due to a drop in pig prices compared to the previous year [1]. - In contrast, the white chicken farming sector achieved revenue of 8.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.03% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company in the white chicken farming sector was 316 million yuan, benefiting from a recovery in chick prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side indicates that from April 2024, pig farming entered a profitable phase, with the breeding sow inventory gradually increasing. As of September 2025, the breeding sow inventory reached 40.35 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% [2]. - The total pig slaughter volume from January to September 2025 was 530 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.85%, with Q3 2025 slaughter volume reaching 164 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 4.72% [2]. - The average pig price in Q3 2025 dropped to 13.83 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 28.70% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.15% [2]. - Consumer demand showed fluctuations, with a decline in July and August due to hot weather, but a recovery in September driven by back-to-school and holiday preparations [2]. Group 3: Outlook and Policy Impact - The supply side outlook suggests continued growth in breeding sow capacity from H2 2024 to H1 2025, with expectations of production capacity reduction in the industry [3]. - Recent policies from the National Development and Reform Commission aim to control breeding sow inventory and restrict pig sales to curb speculative behavior, which may lead to a reduction in production capacity among leading farming enterprises [3]. - Demand is expected to increase in Q4 due to seasonal factors, but overall growth is anticipated to be limited, with potential further declines in pig prices post-Spring Festival [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The livestock ETF (159865), which has a "pig content" of approximately 60%, is recommended for investment, as it covers the entire pig farming industry chain [4]. - Despite short-term pressures on pig prices and farming profits, the potential for accelerated reduction in breeding sow inventory and improved supply-demand dynamics in 2026 is highlighted [4]. - The ETF has seen significant inflows, with its scale surpassing 8 billion yuan, reflecting growing investor interest amid industry fluctuations and policy expectations [4].