巴基斯坦9月CPI反弹至5.6%

Core Insights - Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a "stable then rising" trend from May to September 2025, with a significant rebound in September due to rising food prices and energy cost adjustments, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [1][4]. Group 1: CPI Trends - The CPI remained relatively low from the second quarter to early third quarter of 2025, but saw a notable increase in September [2]. - In May, the CPI increased by 3.46% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend since the high inflation of 2023, primarily due to improvements in the food supply chain [4]. - By July, the CPI rebounded to 4.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9%, significantly lower than the 11.09% recorded in July 2024, indicating a marked easing of inflationary pressures compared to the previous year [4]. - September's CPI surged to 5.6% year-on-year, marking the highest point in two quarters and ending a two-month decline [4]. Group 2: Drivers of Inflation - Energy prices were a key driver of inflation, with gas costs rising by 29.85% year-on-year and electricity prices increasing by 21.46% in July, contributing over 30% to the CPI [5]. - The Asian Development Bank approved a $130 million loan to support energy sector optimization, which is linked to adjustments in energy prices and domestic distribution system reforms [5]. - Food prices also exhibited seasonal and disaster-related volatility, with fresh vegetable prices soaring by 56% month-on-month in July, contributing 40% to the urban CPI increase, primarily due to supply shortages caused by summer rains [5]. - In September, food prices again became a significant inflation driver, exacerbated by flooding that disrupted crop harvesting and transportation, leading to simultaneous increases in grain and vegetable prices alongside energy price effects [5]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Policy Response - The fluctuations in CPI have significantly impacted livelihoods and business operations, particularly affecting low-income groups who are most vulnerable to rising food and energy prices, thereby diminishing household purchasing power [6]. - Businesses are facing dual pressures from rising raw material and energy costs, with some small and medium enterprises showing signs of production contraction [6]. - The market is closely monitoring the State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP) policy decisions, as the monetary policy committee has maintained the policy rate at 11% for four consecutive meetings to balance inflation control and economic recovery needs [6].