澳洲联储维持现金利率3.6%不变 符合市场预期

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.6%, reflecting a cautious approach amid rising inflation and a recovering economy [4][7]. Monetary Policy - The RBA's monetary policy committee unanimously agreed to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, citing a rebound in private demand and a tight labor market as reasons for this decision [4]. - Recent data indicates stronger economic growth and persistent inflation, suggesting that the economy's potential capacity is more limited than previously expected [4]. - The RBA acknowledges the complexity of the financial environment and maintains a neutral policy stance [4]. Economic Forecasts - Core inflation is expected to remain above the target range of 2% to 3% until mid-2026, with the labor market projected to remain stable [5]. - The unemployment rate is forecasted to stabilize around 4.4% by the end of 2027, with employment growth slowing to 1.1% by mid-2026 [5]. - GDP growth is anticipated to be 2.0% by December 2025 and 1.9% by December 2026, with a return to 2.0% by the end of 2027 [5]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Australian dollar experienced a short-term decline against the US dollar [6]. - The decision to maintain the cash rate aligns with market expectations, as economists had predicted no change [7]. Inflation Trends - Recent inflation data shows a significant increase, with the producer price index rising by 1% and consumer inflation by 1.3% for the July to September period [8]. - The overall inflation rate for Australia surged to 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, up from 2.1% in the previous quarter [8]. - The core inflation measure also increased from 2.7% to 3%, complicating the RBA's efforts to control inflation without causing significant job losses [8]. Real Estate Market - The Home Value Index in Australia rose by 1.1% in October, marking the strongest monthly increase since June 2023, with national and major city house price indices reaching historical highs [11]. - The recovery in the real estate market may complicate the RBA's efforts to manage inflationary pressures [11].