Spotify tops Q3 earnings estimates as margins rebound and price hike speculation builds

Core Insights - Spotify reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter results, exceeding analyst estimates on revenue, margins, and user growth, while providing mixed guidance for the fourth quarter [1][2] - The stock has increased approximately 70% over the past year, attributed to price hikes, a leaner cost structure, and optimism regarding AI-driven product innovation [1][5] Financial Performance - Revenue for the third quarter reached 4.27 billion euros, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus of 4.23 billion euros and an increase from 3.99 billion euros year-over-year [2] - Adjusted earnings per share were 3.28 euros, significantly higher than the expected 1.98 euros and up from 1.45 euros last year [2] - Monthly active users (MAUs) grew to 713 million, surpassing estimates of 711 million, while premium subscribers reached 281 million, consistent with forecasts and up from 252 million a year ago [2] User Growth and Guidance - Ad-supported users increased to 442 million, up from 402 million the previous year [3] - For the fourth quarter, Spotify forecasts revenue of 4.5 billion euros, slightly below analyst expectations of 4.57 billion euros, while projecting MAUs to reach 745 million and premium subscribers to total 289 million, roughly in line with forecasts [3] Management and Future Outlook - The company expressed satisfaction with its performance and believes it is well-positioned for growth and improving margins in 2025 as it reinvests to support long-term potential [4] - Following a disappointing second quarter, CEO Daniel Ek remains confident in Spotify's long-term trajectory, anticipating 2025 to be a standout year [5] - Ek will transition to executive chairman in 2026, with Gustav Söderström and Alex Norström taking over as co-CEOs, a move welcomed by Wall Street for its leadership continuity [6] Margin and Profitability Goals - Spotify aims for long-term gross margin targets between 30% and 35%, having previously struggled with a gross margin around 25% [7]