英国财政前景现转机？财长为增税铺路，英债急升、英镑跌至七个月低点

Core Viewpoint - The UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is paving the way for comprehensive tax increases while aiming to protect public spending and reduce national debt amidst challenging economic conditions [1][2] Group 1: Economic Context - Reeves highlighted the difficult economic situation characterized by high debt, low productivity, and persistent inflation [1] - The UK currently faces the highest borrowing costs among G7 nations, necessitating a reduction in government debt [2] - The Resolution Foundation predicts that Reeves will need to raise £26 billion ($35 billion) to address the budget gap, which is smaller than previously anticipated due to stronger wage growth [3][6] Group 2: Fiscal Strategy - Reeves aims to create a more resilient public finance system that can withstand global turmoil and enhance business investment confidence [2] - She has committed to not implementing austerity measures like previous Conservative governments, focusing instead on balancing everyday spending with tax revenues by the end of the decade [2][7] - The Resolution Foundation suggests increasing the fiscal buffer to £20 billion to alleviate uncertainty surrounding the Labour government's first 16 months in office [6] Group 3: Political Implications - The upcoming budget announcement on November 26 is politically critical for Reeves, especially as Labour's support in polls has dropped to historic lows [7] - Reeves previously promised not to raise taxes again after announcing a £36 billion tax increase last year, complicating her current fiscal strategy [7] - The government has faced challenges, including rising borrowing costs and opposition from Labour MPs regarding welfare cuts [7][10] Group 4: Productivity and Wage Growth - Recent data indicates that public sector productivity has declined by 3% since 2019, with healthcare productivity down by 1.5% [10] - However, higher-than-expected wage growth is expected to offset much of the productivity decline, potentially increasing tax revenue by an additional £13 billion by 2029-30 [9][10]