Core Viewpoint - Increasing acceptance of the semiconductor storage supercycle concept, but ongoing controversies exist regarding demand, supply, and valuation of SanDisk, with Morgan Stanley maintaining a bullish outlook despite removing its "preferred" designation due to the need for profit growth to align with current stock prices [1] Group 1: Demand Growth and Shipment Impact - Morgan Stanley projects a 20-25% growth in industry bit output next year, the highest in recent years, with SanDisk expected to grow in line with this, and potentially outperform the industry due to new QLC products and flexible supply [1] - By 2026, AI and data centers are anticipated to significantly contribute to NAND industry growth, with enterprise SSDs expected to see a 40-50% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2: NAND Supply Growth Outlook - NAND supply growth is expected to be constrained in 2026, with SanDisk and Kioxia's joint venture being one of the few potential new wafer capacity sources [2] - Positive factors include limited investment in the first half of 2026, with significant spending recovery anticipated in the second half of 2026, aligning with comments from key semiconductor equipment suppliers [2] Group 3: Profitability Outlook and Trading Range - SanDisk's profitability is expected to improve significantly, with projected earnings per share of $16.35 in 2026, and potential peak earnings of $30 per share during this cycle [3] - In a baseline scenario, a 15% bit growth is expected in 2026, with a 12% decrease in unit bit costs and a 14.4% increase in pricing, supporting a gross margin of 45.7% [3] - In an optimistic scenario, revenue could reach $13.1 billion with a gross margin of 50.3% and earnings per share of $26.26, with potential for earnings to exceed $30 if margins reach the mid-50% range [3] Group 4: Product Portfolio Concerns - SanDisk's exposure in the enterprise SSD market is low, with only 12% of bit share in Q2, despite high demand for enterprise SSDs [4] - The company has lagged in the enterprise SSD sector but maintains stable bit share excluding Yangtze Memory Technologies, with potential for accelerated growth as production ramps up [4] Group 5: Long-term Growth Potential - The ability of NAND to leverage AI for profit and valuation expansion remains uncertain, with the need for enterprise SSDs to confirm their role as structural replacements for hard drives to strengthen long-term bullish logic [5] - The growth momentum needs to expand beyond single terminal markets, as NAND still heavily relies on smartphones and PCs, necessitating broader market participation to sustain demand cycles [6] Group 6: Price Target Adjustments - The target price for SanDisk has been raised to $230, with an optimistic scenario target of $300, reflecting an estimated price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 32 times based on historical earnings [6]
“存储超级周期降临”争议 大摩移除闪迪(SNDK.US) “首选”投资标识