Gardner: The markets are underestimating Trump's chances of winning

Core Viewpoint - The prediction markets are currently underestimating the likelihood of the Trump administration winning a court ruling regarding tariffs, with estimates around 40% while some believe it is above 50% [2]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The administration has alternative trade laws to implement tariffs if the court ruling is unfavorable, although these alternatives have limitations [3]. - The outcome of the court case may not significantly impact current tariffs but could influence future administrations' use of the AIPA [5]. - Business leaders express a preference for maintaining existing tariffs for planning certainty, as a ruling against them could lead to uncertainty and alternative tactics from the administration [7]. Group 2: Business Adaptation - Larger companies have adapted to tariffs by restructuring supply chains, while smaller niche companies may struggle and face potential bankruptcy [9]. - The impact of tariffs is not uniform across the industry; larger firms may find ways to manage, while smaller firms could face dire consequences [10].