税收新政鼓励场内交易，黄金ETF又要“火”了？

Core Insights - The new tax policy on gold transactions aims to clarify the VAT rules for "on-market" and "off-market" transactions, as well as for "investment gold" and "non-investment gold," ultimately encouraging on-market gold trading [1][3] - The attractiveness of gold ETFs is expected to increase as investors shift towards these investment tools due to lower tax burdens associated with non-physical investments [1][6] - Global gold demand reached a historical record in Q3, driven significantly by the sustained interest in physical gold ETFs [1][7] Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy, effective from November 1, 2023, exempts VAT for transactions involving standard gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange until December 31, 2027, provided there is no physical delivery [3][5] - For standard gold purchased for investment purposes, the VAT deduction chain is interrupted at the member sales stage, while the deduction rate for non-investment purposes is reduced from 13% to 6% [3][4] - The policy is expected to increase costs for gold jewelry and physical gold bars, while on-market transactions, including gold ETFs, remain unaffected by VAT [3][4] Market Reactions - Major gold jewelry brands and markets have already raised their prices in response to the new tax policy, with costs potentially increasing by over 100 yuan per gram for non-compliant channels [4] - Banks have adjusted their gold accumulation and physical gold exchange services, with some increasing gold bar prices based on the new tax policy [5][6] - The new policy indirectly encourages individual investors to utilize on-market channels for gold investment, which are less impacted by tax burdens [6] Gold ETF Growth - The total scale of domestic gold ETFs has surged to nearly 210 billion yuan, with significant inflows contributing to this growth [2][8] - The leading gold ETF, Huaxia Gold ETF, has seen its scale increase by 528 million yuan, while other ETFs have also experienced substantial growth [8][9] - The global demand for gold ETFs has increased, with a total holding increase of 619 tons in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a strong shift towards these investment vehicles [7][8]