东海期货：11月钢材市场或先抑后扬 但再破新低的概率不大

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a downturn during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," with rebar prices dropping to around 3100 yuan/ton due to weaker-than-expected demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The steel market's performance in the traditional peak season has been disappointing, with prices falling from 3200 yuan/ton in mid-September to a low of 3021 yuan/ton in mid-October [1] - The adjustment in steel prices began in late September, primarily due to weakened macro expectations and significantly lower demand during the peak season [2] - By late October, trade tensions showed signs of easing, leading to a marginal improvement in steel demand, which helped prices stabilize around 3000 yuan/ton [1][2] Group 2: Future Price Expectations - As November approaches, the steel market is expected to enter a traditional demand slump, with further price declines likely due to reduced demand [2] - The expectation is that steel prices may test lower levels again in November, but a potential rebound could occur in late November due to decreasing supply and strong policy expectations [4] Group 3: Supply and Profitability - In October, domestic pig iron production remained high, contributing to the strength of iron ore prices, while the rising costs of iron ore and coking coal contrasted with the weakening steel prices [2] - The profitability of steel mills has been under pressure, with the proportion of profitable mills dropping from 68% in early August to 45% by the end of October [3] - The anticipated further decline in steel demand and ongoing losses for steel mills may lead to increased willingness to cut production, especially with potential upgrades to production restrictions during the heating season [3] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The overall outlook for the steel market in November suggests a potential for prices to decline further initially, followed by a possible recovery as discussions around winter storage begin and supply from loss-making mills decreases [4] - Iron ore faces demand pressure from declining pig iron production, while global iron ore shipments have increased since October, leading to a continued oversupply situation [4]