Brent Stalls at $65 as Markets Shrug Off OPEC+ Supply Signals

Core Insights - OPEC+ has decided to pause production hikes in Q1 2026, failing to stimulate an oil price rally amid ongoing concerns of a supply glut [1][3][9] OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ announced a halt to its scheduled return of voluntary cuts for Q1 2026, with a minor increase of 137,000 b/d planned for December 2025 [3] - Russia advocated for the pause in supply hikes to better assess the impact of sanctions on its crude production [3] - Saudi Arabia supported Russia's motion, citing expected inventory builds globally in Q1 2026, which would not justify worsening the supply glut [4] Production Quotas and Real Output - OPEC+ countries have collectively increased their quotas by 2.9 million b/d this year, which is half of the total 5.85 million b/d voluntary cuts [4] - In real terms, OPEC+ has only boosted production by 70-75% of their targets, as many analysts believe these volumes were already in the market [5] Market Reactions and Company Movements - BP has agreed to sell minority stakes in its US onshore pipeline assets for $1.5 billion, responding to pressure from activist investors [6] - Chevron has signed a deal to explore two offshore blocks in Guinea Bissau, taking a 90% working interest [6] - Geopark rejected an unsolicited acquisition proposal from Parex Resources worth almost $1 billion [7] - ENI has signed a deal to assess five offshore oil and gas blocks in Sierra Leone [7] - Libya's National Oil Company reported a new oil discovery in the Ghadames Basin, with production nearing 5,000 b/d [8] Market Sentiment - Despite OPEC+'s efforts to address oversupply concerns, crude oil prices remained stagnant, with ICE Brent around $65 per barrel [9] - Oil executives in Abu Dhabi expressed optimism that next year's oil glut would not be as severe, but a price rally may depend on escalating US-Venezuela tensions [9]