Commercial real estate deals are slowing, but these two beleaguered sectors are shining

Core Insights - Commercial real estate (CRE) dealmaking is experiencing a downturn in 2025, with transaction values significantly below pre-Covid levels, despite a 5% increase from the previous year as of Q3 [2] - Key trends include a flight to quality in property investments, economic uncertainty impacting the hotel sector, and renewed interest in office and retail spaces [3][5] Transaction Trends - The average dollar size of sales in September increased to $12.7 million, compared to $11.2 million over the previous two years, indicating a flight to quality [3] - Among the top 50 deals, 29 transactions exceeded $100 million, with the volume of such deals rising by 35% year-over-year in Q3, while smaller deals have remained flat or decreased [4] Sector Performance - The hotel sector is notably weak, with deal values down 30% in September compared to the same month in 2024, attributed to reduced international and business travel [6] - Investors are showing more confidence in higher quality properties, leading to increased investment from various sources, including sovereign debt funds [5]