Spin-Off Research Values Comcast SOTP At $40 -BUY

Core Insights - Comcast reported a 2.7% year-over-year decline in revenue for Q3 2025, totaling $31.2 billion, primarily due to a comparison with the previous year's $1.9 billion revenue boost from the Paris Olympics [3][24] - The company is undergoing a strategic shift to simplify pricing and enhance customer experience in response to intense competition in the broadband market [5][12] - The planned spin-off of Versant Media Group is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, allowing Comcast to focus on its core media and connectivity business [6][7] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was nearly flat, decreasing by 0.7% year-over-year to $9.7 billion, with a margin expansion of approximately 64 basis points to 31.0% [3][25] - The Connectivity & Platforms segment saw a slight revenue decline of 0.6% year-over-year to $20.2 billion, while adjusted EBITDA decreased by 3.5% to $8.0 billion [3][11] - The Content & Experiences segment reported a revenue decline of 6.8% to $11.7 billion, but adjusted EBITDA grew by 8.4% to $2.0 billion, driven by strong performance in Theme Parks [3][17] Segment Highlights - The Mobile division added 414,000 new lines, with domestic wireless revenue growing by 14.0% to $1.2 billion [4][14] - Theme Parks revenue increased by 18.7% to $2.7 billion, largely due to the successful opening of Epic Universe [4][18] - Peacock's adjusted EBITDA losses improved significantly, reducing from a loss of $436 million in Q3 2024 to a loss of $217 million in Q3 2025 [4][19] Strategic Initiatives - Comcast is investing in a new go-to-market strategy that includes simplified pricing and improved customer experience, which is expected to create near-term headwinds [5][12] - The company is facing increased competition from fiber and fixed wireless providers, prompting a focus on mobile growth and a converged product strategy [4][28] - Versant Media Group plans to address structural challenges by monetizing digital assets and expanding into adjacent markets post-spin-off [8][35] Valuation Insights - The fair value estimates for Comcast's stub business is $36.20 per share, while the consolidated entity is valued at $39.80 per share [8][42] - Versant is valued at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.0x, reflecting its challenges in the linear TV market [41][40] - Comcast's overall valuation reflects its leading position in the broadband market, despite slower growth compared to peers [42][41]