Canadian Natural to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

Core Viewpoint - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is expected to report third-quarter earnings on November 6, with an estimated earnings per share of 54 cents and revenues of $6.7 billion [1][8]. Group 1: Previous Quarter Performance - In the last reported quarter, CNQ achieved adjusted earnings per share of 51 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents, although this was a decrease from 64 cents in the same quarter last year due to lower oil and natural gas liquid prices [2]. - Total revenues for the last quarter were $6.3 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $5 million, with an average surprise of 7.1% over the last four quarters [2]. Group 2: Estimate Revisions and Trends - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings has remained unchanged over the past week, indicating a 23.9% year-over-year decrease, while revenues are expected to increase by 2.2% compared to the previous year [3]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Q3 Results - CNQ's Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading production saw significant increases, with upgrader utilization at 106%, and the company anticipates strong operating results for the second half of 2025 [4]. - The acquisition of liquids-rich Montney assets in the Grand Prairie area is expected to enhance production volumes and create synergies, contributing to improved revenues in the upcoming quarter [4]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts third-quarter revenues to rise from $6.5 billion in the same quarter last year [4]. Group 4: Expense Considerations - CNQ faces rising expenses in various segments, including North Sea, Offshore Africa, and Oil Sands Mining, which may impact profitability in the upcoming quarter [5]. - North Sea expenses are projected to increase to $176.9 million from $137 million year-over-year, while Offshore Africa expenses are expected to rise to $144.1 million from $23 million in the previous quarter [5]. - Oil Sands Mining expenses are anticipated to grow to $2,520.7 million from $2,306 million year-over-year [5]. Group 5: Earnings Prediction - The Zacks model indicates a likelihood of an earnings beat for CNQ, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.55% and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [6][7].