财经观察：美国谋划关键矿产交易俱乐部

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is forming a "Critical Minerals Trading Club" with multiple countries to restructure supply chains and reduce dependence on foreign sources, aiming to dominate the AI and green industries. However, challenges such as technology, costs, and internal member interests may hinder this initiative, while some countries face risks of overheating investments in critical mineral assets [1][2][4]. Group 1: Formation of the Trading Club - The U.S. plans to create a "Critical Minerals Trading Club" as a core platform for Western countries to engage in critical mineral refining and processing trade, with the ultimate goal of leading the AI competition [2][4]. - The club has already begun formation with participation from Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Australia, and Thailand [2]. Group 2: Energy Security and Policy Implications - Energy security is deemed crucial for the U.S. to maintain its global influence, with critical minerals being essential for AI production [4]. - The U.S. Treasury announced a "Mineral Security Partnership Financing Network" involving over ten countries, managing assets exceeding $30 trillion to support mineral trade projects [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The global trade of rare earths is experiencing significant growth, with a projected 67% increase in U.S.-Australia rare earth trade in 2024 and a 52% rise in intra-EU rare earth semi-finished product transactions [8]. - U.S. stocks related to lithium and rare earths have surged, with some companies seeing stock price increases of over 300% this year [9][10]. Group 4: Geopolitical Context and Challenges - The U.S. aims to establish a supply chain independent of China, which currently dominates the rare earth market with over 90% of global refining capacity [5][12]. - There are discrepancies in the objectives of participating countries in the trading club, with the U.S. seeking rule-making power, while resource-rich countries like Australia and Canada aim to increase mineral prices and exports [12]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Risks - Experts warn of potential overheating in the critical minerals market, drawing parallels to past resource booms, indicating that many companies may not succeed in this sector [11]. - The transition to a more sustainable and independent supply chain is expected to be long and costly, with significant challenges ahead [11][12].