中信证券：铜价有望在短期和中长期维度均受益于供需改善

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant decline in copper production among major global mining companies, with a nearly 5% year-on-year decrease in Q3, and a continuation of this trend expected in Q4. The report suggests that raw material shortages and potential "anti-involution" factors will contribute to a contraction in domestic refined copper supply in Q4, alongside stable demand, leading to a moderate reduction in domestic inventory. Furthermore, a projected 50% widening of the global refined copper supply gap due to low supply and steady demand in the coming year is anticipated, with LME copper prices expected to exceed $10,000 per ton, showcasing upward elasticity. The report recommends investment opportunities in the copper sector [1]. Group 1 - Major global copper mining companies experienced a nearly 5% year-on-year decline in production in Q3, with expectations for continued contraction in Q4 [1] - Domestic refined copper supply is projected to contract in Q4 due to raw material shortages and stable demand, leading to a moderate reduction in domestic inventory [1] - A 50% widening of the global refined copper supply gap is anticipated next year, driven by low supply and steady demand, with LME copper prices expected to exceed $10,000 per ton [1]