Macro News - The U.S. Treasury yields have rebounded significantly, with the 10-year Treasury yield returning to 4.11%, primarily due to high corporate bond issuance and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy following hawkish comments from Powell last week [1] - The dollar index has shown a notable rebound, approaching the critical level of 100, influenced by expectations of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the weakening of non-U.S. currencies [1] - The Federal Reserve's mixed signals create uncertainty in the market, with various officials expressing differing views on the potential for a rate cut in December, indicating that while risks to employment and inflation are rising, a rate cut is not guaranteed [1] Economic Data - The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 48.7, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction, falling short of the expected 49.5 and down from the previous value of 49.1 [2] - New orders have declined for the second consecutive month, and the production index remains weak, with the price payment index hitting a new low for the year [2] - The ongoing government shutdown continues to pose risks, with the latest vote failing to pass, which may enhance market uncertainty and increase safe-haven demand for precious metals [2] Institutional Views - Precious metals are currently in a volatile trend, facing pressure from the significant rebound in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a weaker performance [2] - Previous short-term corrections have lowered volatility, and recent optimistic expectations have not materialized, suggesting a higher likelihood of renewed risks in the future [2] - Despite the challenges, there are indications that precious metals may have support for recovery in the medium to long term, although fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index need to be monitored closely [2]
金元期货：美债美元联手施压 贵金属偏弱运行
Jin Tou Wang·2025-11-05 01:36