压制债市的因素逐渐消退，关注十年国债ETF（511260）

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is showing signs of recovery in the fourth quarter, with the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) presenting potential investment opportunities [1] Fundamental Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for small and medium enterprises continues to contract, and the year-on-year export growth may weaken in the fourth quarter. Weak domestic demand and low social investment returns are limiting the upward space for interest rates [1] - Historical experience indicates that supply-side policies do not directly transmit to macro interest rates, and previous bond market adjustments were more due to anticipatory actions and the stock-bond balancing effect rather than substantial changes in fundamentals [1] Policy Environment - On October 27, the central bank governor stated at the 2025 Financial Street Forum that "the bond market is operating well and will resume open market operations for government bonds." This move is expected to provide short-term benefits to the bond market, with close attention to the actual scale of government bond purchases by the central bank [1] - The Politburo meeting has set the tone for "moderately loose monetary policy" and "maintaining reasonable liquidity," which supports the bond market [1] Technical Analysis - The bond market has experienced significant declines, but recent negative factors are gradually dissipating, indicating a potential rebound cycle. Factors that suppressed the bond market in the third quarter are fading, and institutions are beginning to position for the next year's allocation, suggesting that the bond market may perform better in the fourth quarter compared to the third [1]