Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-11-05 02:12Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has shown strong performance recently, with significant price increases expected in the fourth quarter due to supply constraints and rising demand driven by early winter conditions [1] Industry Summary - The coal sector experienced a strong rally on the 5th, with companies like Antai Group and Dayou Energy hitting their daily price limits, and others like Shaanxi Black Cat and Yunmei Energy also showing notable gains [1] - Since the third quarter, domestic coal production growth has gradually slowed due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, with these constraints expected to persist into the fourth quarter [1] - Demand has increased due to accelerated cooling in northern regions and early winter stockpiling, with expectations of further replenishment needs as the winter season extends [1] Price Expectations - CITIC Securities forecasts that the average price of port thermal coal in the fourth quarter may rise by over 15% quarter-on-quarter, potentially exceeding 850 yuan per ton [1] - Coking coal prices are also expected to remain high, with a projected quarter-on-quarter increase of nearly 200 yuan per ton [1] - If the enforcement of overproduction checks strengthens, coal prices may exceed expectations [1] Investment Recommendations - In the context of improving policies, coal prices, and earnings expectations, the coal sector is anticipated to have a sustained rebound in the fourth quarter [1] - Companies that are "defensive and offensive" leaders in thermal coal should be monitored, along with undervalued firms that exhibit good earnings elasticity [1]