智通财经网·2025-11-05 02:11Core Viewpoint - East Asia Securities has lowered Alibaba's target price from HKD 178 to HKD 196, a decrease of 10%, and downgraded the investment rating from "Buy" to "Hold" [1] Financial Performance - Alibaba is expected to announce its Q2 fiscal results in mid-October, with overall revenue growth anticipated to slow to 4% year-on-year [1] - Cloud business revenue is projected to accelerate growth to over 30%, representing a potential highlight for the company [1] - Revenue from China's e-commerce business is expected to increase by 12% year-on-year, primarily driven by contributions from the flash purchase business [1] Investment Outlook - The forecasted price-to-earnings ratio for Alibaba over the next 12 months is 21.1 times, which is higher than the average since its listing in Hong Kong (19.2 times) by approximately 0.2 standard deviations [1] - Despite this, Alibaba's valuation remains significantly discounted compared to AI cloud companies listed in Europe and the US [1] - As domestic AI applications become more widespread, there is potential for upward adjustments in the valuation of Alibaba's cloud business, supporting a recovery in the company's overall valuation [1] - The target price-to-earnings ratio for the fiscal year 2027 is set at 21.8 times, with an adjusted earnings per share forecast of RMB 8.4 [1]