焦煤：产地煤价偏强运行 蒙煤价格坚挺 钢厂减产利空补库需求

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a tight overall pattern, with fluctuations in futures prices and varying supply and demand dynamics impacting the industry [5] Supply - As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of 88 sampled coal mines is 84.34%, up by 0.38% week-on-week, with raw coal production at 8.5181 million tons per week, an increase of 38,100 tons week-on-week [2] - The inventory of raw coal stands at 1.3198 million tons, down by 17.04% week-on-week, while the production of premium coal is 4.3492 million tons per week, up by 14,700 tons week-on-week [2] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 sampled coal mines is 84.8%, down by 0.3% week-on-week, with daily raw coal production at 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 600 tons [2] Demand - As of October 30, the average daily production of coke at independent coking plants is 646,000 tons, unchanged week-on-week, while the average daily production at 247 steel mills is 462,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons week-on-week [3] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.3636 million tons, down by 35,400 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 81.75%, down by 2.96% [3] - The profitability rate of steel mills is 45.02%, down by 2.60% week-on-week [3] Inventory - As of October 30, the total inventory of coking coal (including mines, washing plants, coking plants, steel mills, ports, and terminals) is 36.71 million tons, down by 6.2% week-on-week [4] - The inventory at 523 coal mines is 3.833 million tons, down by 31,300 tons, while the inventory at 314 washing plants is 4.605 million tons, down by 4,400 tons [4] - The inventory at coking plants increased by 22,800 tons to 10.525 million tons, while steel mills' inventory rose by 13,400 tons to 7.963 million tons [4] Market Dynamics - The futures market for coking coal has shown a downward trend, while the spot prices in Shanxi remain strong, and the prices for Mongolian coal are fluctuating at high levels [5] - There is a cautious sentiment among traders due to the rapid increase in coking coal prices, despite ongoing demand for replenishment from downstream sectors [5] - The supply side is expected to improve slightly with the resumption of some coal mines in Shanxi, but overall production recovery is limited [5]