Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-11-05 02:21Group 1 - The coal sector experienced a strong rally on the 5th, with companies like Antai Group hitting the limit up for three consecutive days, and others such as Dayou Energy and Baotailong also reaching the limit up [2] - Since the third quarter, domestic coal production growth has gradually slowed due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, with these constraints expected to persist into the fourth quarter [2] - In October, northern China saw accelerated cooling, leading to an early release of winter storage demand, with expectations of further replenishment needs due to a prolonged winter [2] Group 2 - CITIC Securities forecasts that the average price of port thermal coal in the fourth quarter may rise by over 15% quarter-on-quarter, potentially exceeding 850 yuan/ton [2] - Coking coal prices are also expected to remain high, with a projected quarter-on-quarter increase of nearly 200 yuan/ton in the fourth quarter [2] - The coal sector is anticipated to rebound in the fourth quarter due to improvements in policy, coal prices, and earnings expectations, suggesting a focus on both "defensive and offensive" thermal coal leaders and undervalued companies with good earnings elasticity [2]