苯酚产业链：供需错配旺季不旺

Core Viewpoint - The phenol industry chain is experiencing a "peak season not booming" scenario, with market prices declining significantly from September to October, indicating ongoing pressure and potential for further declines in the short term [1] Raw Materials: Weakness and Insufficient Support - Both pure benzene and propylene markets have weakened, leading to insufficient cost support for phenol [2] - Pure benzene prices fell by 3.13% in September and continued to decline by over 5% in October, with some regions seeing prices around 5400 yuan, down more than 25% year-on-year [2] - The high import volume of pure benzene at 4.1147 million tons in the first three quarters, up 41% year-on-year, has not improved the downstream loss situation, resulting in a lack of purchasing enthusiasm [2] - Propylene prices have also dropped below 6000 yuan, creating a new low for the year, driven by lower upstream crude oil and propane prices [2] Phenol: Oversupply and Limited Recovery - The continuous decline in the phenol market is closely linked to the concentrated release of production capacity, with significant new capacity coming online in Q3 [3] - Despite temporary supply tightening due to maintenance, the overall supply remains ample, leading to persistent price declines [3] - Future supply pressures are expected to remain high due to the restart of maintenance facilities and stable output from new capacities [3] Bisphenol A: Demand Weakness and Deep Losses - The bisphenol A market is facing a significant imbalance between supply growth and slowing demand, resulting in deep losses for the industry [4] - Although prices briefly rose above 8200 yuan during the peak season, the market has since entered a downward trend due to weak downstream demand [4] - The polycarbonate (PC) industry is experiencing limited new orders, with a current operating rate of 77%, down 4 percentage points from September [4] Downstream Impact: Epoxy Resin Industry Challenges - The epoxy resin industry is also struggling, with an operating rate of only 51% [5] - Recent policy changes regarding wind power have negatively impacted the epoxy resin sector, which may further reduce the procurement of bisphenol A and create a negative feedback loop across the entire industry chain [5]