恒生科技估值再度回到历史低位，三大变量决定后市方向

Group 1 - The Hong Kong technology sector is experiencing a downturn, with major indices collectively declining and the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF dropping over 2% [1] - Key stocks such as Bilibili, Tencent Music, Kingsoft, and Alibaba are leading the declines, with Alibaba falling over 2% and trading volume exceeding 6 billion [1] - Dongwu Securities indicates that as of October 31, 2025, the risk level of the Hang Seng Technology Index has adjusted to 52.69, suggesting a relatively stable market sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - Three catalysts are identified that may influence the future performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index: macroeconomic data, policy developments, and industry earnings [2] - If macro data such as PMI and initial jobless claims underperform, it could strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, benefiting technology stock valuations [2] - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF is at 22.59 times earnings, placing it in the historical low valuation range, being cheaper than over 73% of the time since its inception [2] Group 3 - The current short-term adjustment may present a good opportunity for long-term investment, particularly as the technology sector is expected to benefit from trends like AI [3] - The potential for foreign capital inflow due to a dovish Federal Reserve stance and continued southbound fund accumulation may lead to a turnaround for the Hang Seng Technology Index in the fourth quarter [3] - Investors without access to the Hong Kong Stock Connect may consider investing in the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF to gain exposure to core Chinese AI assets [3]