“强需求+反内卷+新技术”主线共振——三季报看，新能源如何布局？

Lithium Battery - SW Battery (801737.SI) achieved revenue of 901.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and a net profit of 70.2 billion yuan, up 34% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 333.1 billion yuan, a 19% year-on-year increase and a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase, with a net profit of 28.1 billion yuan, up 58% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The improvement in performance is driven by strong domestic passenger car sales, heavy truck replacements, and the resumption of electric vehicle subsidies in Europe [1] - Resource prices for lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese have been rising due to demand expectations and supply policies, with significant price increases expected in Q4 2025 and 2026 [1] Solar Energy - SW Photovoltaic Equipment (801735.SI) reported revenue of 625.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a decline of 11%, and a net loss of 6.9 billion yuan, which has widened [3] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 216.6 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, but net profit turned positive at 1.1 billion yuan [3] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to rising prices of silicon materials and the positive impact of inverter companies benefiting from strong downstream storage demand [3] - Prices for photovoltaic materials showed mixed trends, with silicon materials and wafers increasing, while battery and module prices are stabilizing [3] Wind Power - SW Wind Power Equipment (801736.SI) achieved revenue of 171.0 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38%, and a net profit of 5.7 billion yuan, up 13% [5] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 66.2 billion yuan, a 27% year-on-year increase, with net profit of 1.4 billion yuan, reflecting stable performance [5] - The growth is driven by accelerated project construction and a recovery in bidding prices, leading to increased orders and revenue [5] Market Outlook - The lithium battery industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in Q4 2025 and 2026, driven by strong demand in energy storage and commercial vehicles, as well as a new car cycle in Europe [2] - The solar energy sector is anticipated to recover due to policy support, market clearing, and technological iterations, with a focus on the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts [4] - The wind power sector is poised for a new upward cycle, with significant growth potential in offshore wind projects and positive market sentiment for onshore wind installations [5] Investment Opportunities - Key investment themes include strong demand in energy storage, the ongoing "anti-involution" in the solar sector, and breakthroughs in new technologies such as solid-state batteries and advanced photovoltaic materials [6] - Investors interested in lithium battery demand and solid-state battery advancements may consider the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806), which covers the entire lithium battery supply chain [7] - For a comprehensive exposure to lithium, energy storage, solar, and wind power, investors can look at the 20cm ChiNext New Energy ETF (159387) and the Carbon Neutrality 50 ETF (159861) [7]