加拿大央行连续降息 宽松政策加剧加元下行

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strengthening of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar due to reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and weak international oil prices impacting the Canadian dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, aligning with market expectations, but Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish comments indicated that further rate cuts are not guaranteed [1] - The Bank of Canada also cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the second consecutive cut and the lowest level since July 2022, aimed at addressing economic uncertainties from US tariffs while maintaining inflation near the 2% target [1] Group 2 - Technically, the USD/CAD pair maintains a strong structure above 1.4050, with short-term moving averages in a bullish arrangement and the 14-day RSI above 50, indicating ongoing bullish momentum [2] - A breakthrough above the resistance level of 1.4102 could lead to further gains towards 1.4150 and 1.4200, while a drop below the support level of 1.4000 may test the 1.3960 and 1.3920 regions [2] - Morgan Stanley's forex strategy chief noted that the current exchange rate reflects a repricing of interest rate differentials, suggesting further upside for USD/CAD as long as the Federal Reserve remains cautious and Canada continues its easing policy [2]