通缩记忆牵制加息步伐 日本央行内部分歧白热化

Core Points - The Bank of Japan's September meeting minutes reveal a cautious stance among some board members regarding the timing of interest rate hikes, emphasizing the need to consider Japan's prolonged experience with deflation [1][3] - The minutes indicate a heated discussion during the September policy meeting, with the governor facing opposition for the first time during his tenure, suggesting a potential interest rate increase in the near future [3][4] - The upcoming labor negotiations are expected to push for wage increases exceeding 5%, which may influence the Bank of Japan's decision on interest rates [4] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Policy - Some board members advocate for a careful approach to interest rate hikes due to Japan's long-standing deflationary context, contrasting with two members who support an increase [1] - The minutes highlight that while conditions for a rate hike are gradually being met, immediate action is deemed risky as it could disrupt financial markets [3] Economic Indicators - The next policy decision is scheduled for December 19, with observers closely monitoring the Bank's communication regarding the possibility of rate hikes [3] - A recent survey indicates that nearly all economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise the benchmark interest rate before January, with half predicting this could happen in December [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The largest labor union in Japan is set to negotiate for over 5% wage increases for the third consecutive year, which may provide initial signals for the Bank of Japan regarding wage adjustments [4]