36天，美国联邦政府“停摆”创纪录！航空濒临关闭，债务增超6000亿美元……

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached its 36th day, marking the longest shutdown in history, primarily due to partisan disagreements over key issues like healthcare subsidies [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns that the shutdown could reduce the annual GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter [1][12] - Key pressure points driving negotiations include disruptions in air traffic, the suspension of food stamp benefits for 42 million people, and impending military pay issues [1][21] Group 1: Government Shutdown Dynamics - The shutdown began on September 30 after Congress failed to pass any temporary funding bills, leading to 14 failed votes in the Senate over the past month [1][5] - The inability to reach a compromise stems from deepening partisan divides, particularly regarding the extension of enhanced subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) [4][11] - The current political stalemate is exacerbated by the procedural tool of "filibuster," which allows unlimited debate unless a supermajority is reached [10][11] Group 2: Economic Impact - The CBO estimates that a six-week shutdown could result in a permanent loss of approximately $11 billion in economic output, with losses increasing to $14 billion if the shutdown lasts eight weeks [12][13] - The economic costs are compounded by the absence of critical economic data releases due to the shutdown, creating uncertainty for the Federal Reserve's decision-making [16][19] - The market's confidence in potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has diminished, with expectations dropping from 90.5% to 69% for a December rate cut [17][19] Group 3: Pressure Points for Resolution - The aviation sector is facing significant disruptions, with a high absenteeism rate among air traffic controllers leading to flight delays and cancellations [21][23] - The suspension of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has created a direct political pressure on Republican lawmakers, as many beneficiaries reside in Republican-controlled states [21][24] - Military pay issues are also looming, with uncertainty surrounding the next scheduled payment on November 15, which could further compel action from Congress [24][27] Group 4: Potential Outcomes - Analysts suggest that a compromise may involve a "clean" continuing resolution in exchange for future negotiations on healthcare subsidies, allowing both parties to save face [27] - Observing the reconvening of the House and positive developments in Senate negotiations could signal that an agreement is nearing [27]