八马“失速” 股价“茶凉”

Core Viewpoint - Baima Tea Industry has experienced significant stock price declines shortly after its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a drop of over 30% from its peak shortly after the IPO [5][15]. Company Overview - Baima Tea Industry was established in 1997 and claims to be "the largest high-end tea supplier in China by 2024," selling tea and related products through 3,716 offline stores nationwide [7][15]. - The company went public on October 28, 2023, after multiple unsuccessful attempts to list on the A-share market [7]. Stock Performance - After an initial surge to 115 HKD per share post-IPO, the stock has faced a downward trend, with a notable drop to 79 HKD on November 5, 2023, reflecting a volatility of 11.33% during trading [2][5]. - The stock's decline is attributed to the company's application for a full circulation plan for H-shares shortly after listing, which raised concerns about potential selling pressure from shareholders [5][8]. H-share Full Circulation Plan - Baima Tea Industry's board approved a plan to convert 31,933,100 domestic shares into H-shares, representing approximately 37.57% of the total issued shares [7][8]. - If approved, the total circulating shares would increase from 52,986,900 to 84,920,000, marking a potential increase of 60% in market liquidity [8][10]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected at 1.818 billion, 2.122 billion, and 2.143 billion CNY, respectively, with a significant slowdown in growth anticipated, dropping from 16.72% in 2023 to just 0.99% in 2024 [15]. - In the first half of 2023, Baima Tea reported a revenue of 1.063 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.42%, and a net profit of 120 million CNY, down 17.81% [15]. Franchise Expansion Challenges - The company relies heavily on its franchise model, with approximately 50% of its revenue generated from franchise sales [16]. - However, the growth rate of franchisees has slowed, with a decline in the number of franchisees from 1,252 in 2024 to 1,228 in the first half of 2025, indicating a potential issue in expansion [16][18]. - The company plans to add 1,500 new stores over the next three to five years, but market analysts express skepticism about this goal given the current slowdown in franchise growth [18]. Market Context - Other tea companies, such as Lincang Ancient Tea, have also faced significant stock price declines post-IPO, indicating broader challenges within the tea industry [17].