全球AI泡沫恐慌蔓延，韩国股市大跌6%，比尔·盖茨警告“互联网泡沫重现”？

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean stock market, which had seen significant gains earlier in the year, is experiencing a sharp decline due to concerns over AI and chip stock valuations, leading to a drop in the KOSPI index below 4000 points [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of early November, the KOSPI index has risen 72% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI Emerging Markets index by 41% and the S&P 500 by 54% [2]. - The total market capitalization of the South Korean stock market has surged to 3500 trillion KRW, a 48% increase compared to the same period last year [2]. - Daily trading volume in October averaged 12.6 trillion KRW, more than doubling year-on-year [2]. Group 2: AI and Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor supercycle, driven by the AI wave, is a key factor behind the rise in the South Korean stock market, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix controlling 91% of global high-bandwidth memory (HBM) capacity [2]. - SK Hynix's HBM3E holds a 72% share of the global high-end market, while Samsung's 12-layer HBM3E has gained favor with Nvidia [2]. - The South Korean government has allocated 12 trillion KRW for semiconductor R&D and 8 trillion KRW for military exports as part of a 35 trillion KRW economic rescue plan [2]. Group 3: Government Initiatives - The South Korean government plans to triple its AI-related spending, allocating 10.1 trillion KRW to enhance its position alongside the US and China as a global AI power [3]. - The government aims to transform traditional military capabilities into advanced systems suitable for the AI era, enhancing national defense and achieving "self-reliant defense" [3]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Concerns about an AI bubble are rising, with notable figures like Sam Altman and Bill Gates warning that market enthusiasm may be excessive [4][5]. - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has risen above 23 times, nearing its highest level since 2000, raising alarms among financial executives about potential market corrections [5]. - Major tech companies are still heavily investing in infrastructure, with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet collectively spending approximately 78 billion USD on data centers and AI chips last quarter [5].