成本支撑逻辑仍在 铸造铝合金偏弱走势能否持续

Core Viewpoint - The casting aluminum alloy futures market is experiencing a weak performance, with the main contract trading at 20,815.0 CNY/ton, down 0.72% as of November 5 [1] Market Summary - The average price of ADC12 in major domestic regions decreased by 75 CNY/ton, with relatively low transaction volumes, while imported ADC12 prices remained stable, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears [2] - As of November 5, the total social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi was 49,895 tons, a decrease of 136 tons from the previous trading day but an increase of 1,430 tons compared to the previous week [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that starting from November 10, 2025, the trading fees for casting aluminum alloy futures and offset printing paper futures will be adjusted to 0.0005 of the transaction amount, with no fees for intra-day closing positions [2] Institutional Perspectives - Yide Futures noted that profits have turned negative, and with tight supply of scrap aluminum, there is an expectation of reduced supply; however, the automotive sector is still in a growth phase, maintaining expectations for strong seasonal demand [3] - Ruida Futures observed that the main contract for casting aluminum is showing weak fluctuations, with tight supply of scrap aluminum supporting costs; the domestic casting aluminum production growth may slow due to tight scrap supply, while demand is supported by recovery in the economy and increased consumption expectations in the automotive and motorcycle sectors [3] - Overall, the casting aluminum alloy market is expected to face a scenario of slowing supply and rising demand, with recommendations for light trading and careful risk management [3]