11月在产蛋鸡存栏量或小幅增加 供应充裕蛋价仍将受压

Core Viewpoint - The egg production industry is experiencing a decline in the number of laying hens, leading to continued low egg prices due to excess supply and seasonal demand fluctuations [1][6]. Supply Situation - In October, the number of laying hens was approximately 1.359 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.66% but a year-on-year increase of 5.59% [1]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas was 2.95 yuan per jin, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 15.47% and a year-on-year decline of 35.16% [1]. - The supply pressure remains high despite a slight decrease in the number of laying hens, as the egg production rate increases with lower temperatures [1]. Profitability and Production Dynamics - The egg production sector entered a loss state in October, with a profit of -0.17 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.43 yuan from the previous month [3]. - The average age of culled hens was 494 days at the end of October, which is 6 days earlier than the end of September, with a total culling volume of approximately 89 million hens, a month-on-month increase of over 13% [3]. - The number of newly added laying hens decreased to around 81 million, a month-on-month reduction of 9.40%, due to poor profitability and increased difficulty in rearing chicks [3]. Outlook for November - The theoretical number of laying hens in November is expected to be around 1.360 billion, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.07% [4]. - The new laying hens are primarily from chicks reared in July, which saw a decrease in the number of chicks added to around 80 million, a month-on-month reduction of about 2% [4]. - The actual culling volume of hens in November may slightly decrease due to the planned culling schedule before the Spring Festival, despite the overall high level of laying hens [4]. Market Demand and Price Expectations - The overall supply of laying hens is expected to remain stable, with continued supply pressure in the market [6]. - Although market demand shows slight improvement, it is insufficient to significantly boost prices, which are expected to remain low in November compared to October [6].