供大于求格局延续 尿素价格短期继续弱稳承压运行

Core Viewpoint - The recent urea market prices have shown a weak fluctuation, with futures prices maintaining a low range between 1580 to 1650 yuan per ton, and the average price of small particle urea in China at 1610.60 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.12% compared to the previous period [1] Supply Analysis - Urea supply remains high, with significant inventory levels contributing to a market condition of oversupply, which continues to pressure urea prices [1] - In terms of supply, production facilities in Gansu, Xinjiang, and Shanxi have resumed operations, with daily production fluctuating around 200,000 tons. New production capacity in Xinjiang is expected to come online in mid-November, maintaining daily production above 200,000 tons [1] Demand Analysis - Downstream demand is primarily driven by essential needs, with stable production of compound fertilizers and agricultural reserves gradually replenishing stock. Purchases are made on a need basis, particularly when prices are low [1] - The demand for urea is relatively stable due to ongoing production of compound fertilizers and the replenishment of agricultural reserves across various regions [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain an oversupply condition due to the traditional off-season for agriculture, which may limit the downward adjustment of urea prices despite significant cost pressures on production facilities [1] - Overall, urea prices are anticipated to remain weak and stable, with close attention needed on the progress of new production capacity and changes in raw material costs [1]