智通财经网·2025-11-05 06:43Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecast for AIA Group (01299) based on the strong performance of new business value in Q3 2025, raising the target price from HKD 105 to HKD 107 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] Group 1: Business Performance - AIA Group's new business value showed an average year-on-year growth of 49% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a significant recovery in demand for life insurance in mainland China [1] - In Q3 2025, AIA China achieved a strong year-on-year growth of 27% in new business value, even under enhanced economic assumptions, with new regions contributing 11% to this value [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The investment community's confidence in the growth prospects and quality of the life insurance industry is improving, supported by AIA's strong performance [1] - AIA's current price is equivalent to 1.4 times the projected embedded value for FY2026, which is below the historical average of 1.7 times, suggesting potential for upward revisions in market consensus regarding new business value growth forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 [1] Group 3: Stock Performance - AIA's stock has outperformed the market this year, rising by 43% compared to a 31% increase in the Hang Seng Index [1]