Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-05 06:57Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecast for AIA Group (01299) based on the strong performance of new business value in Q3 2025, raising the target price from HKD 105 to HKD 107 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The demand for life insurance in mainland China has shown a significant recovery, with the average new business value growing by 49% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - AIA China achieved a robust year-on-year growth of 27% in new business value for Q3 2025, even under strengthened economic assumptions, with new regions contributing 11% to AIA China's new business value [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The current price of AIA is equivalent to 1.4 times the projected embedded value for FY 2026, outperforming the market with a 43% increase year-to-date compared to a 31% rise in the Hang Seng Index [1] - The expectation of consensus upgrades for new business value growth estimates from FY 2025 to FY 2027 is anticipated to act as a catalyst in the near term, given the current valuation is below the historical average of 1.7 times [1]