电石法PVC转型升级迫在眉睫

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the PVC industry, particularly the calcium carbide method, faces significant challenges due to environmental regulations and supply-demand imbalances, necessitating urgent transformation and upgrades [1][2][3] Group 2 - The environmental pressure is driving a green transition, as the Minamata Convention aims to control mercury emissions, with the calcium carbide method using mercury catalysts accounting for approximately 60% of national mercury consumption [1] - The deadline for the complete ban on primary mercury mining is approaching in 2032, putting pressure on calcium carbide PVC companies to upgrade to mercury-free technologies or face mandatory exit [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has included the calcium carbide PVC process in the "High Pollution Process Elimination Directory," requiring a 50% capacity replacement by 2027 [1] Group 3 - The PVC industry is experiencing intensified market competition due to supply-demand imbalances, with domestic PVC social inventory increasing by 24.48% year-on-year as of October 2025 [2] - The real estate market's downturn has led to significant supply-demand imbalances, resulting in low PVC prices, while calcium carbide PVC companies are suffering losses due to low calcium carbide prices [2] - Planned new capacity additions of 2.5 to 3.5 million tons in 2023 will raise total domestic PVC capacity to around 30 million tons, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [2] Group 4 - The market is undergoing a squeezing effect, with the ethylene method gradually capturing market share from the calcium carbide method, which has historically dominated the PVC industry [3] - Ethylene method PVC production is expected to account for about 40% of total capacity by 2030, driven by cost advantages in the current low international oil price environment [3] - The combination of environmental pressures and competitive dynamics is accelerating the exit of inefficient and outdated capacities in the calcium carbide PVC sector, pushing the industry towards more environmentally friendly processes [3]