国内民用气市场近期转强 但进一步上涨空间受限

Core Viewpoint - The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market in China has shown a moderate strengthening recently, with prices recovering after a brief decline, driven by reduced supply from refineries and strong international market performance [1] Market Analysis - As of November 4, the domestic price for residential gas was 4269 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 38 yuan/ton since the end of October [1] - The tightening of LPG supply from domestic refineries has reduced selling pressure, while strong international gas prices have contributed to the market's improvement [1] - Despite the positive market conditions, the rising costs faced by downstream PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) facilities may limit the upward potential for LPG prices [1] Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the domestic residential gas prices may continue to rise in the short term due to reduced refinery output and lower selling pressure [1] - However, the increasing losses in PDH facilities could suppress future price movements in the international market [1] - The current import price is equivalent to 4350 yuan/ton, indicating limited potential for further price increases domestically [1]