高产能压力仍存 鸡蛋期货盘面反弹空间或受限制

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows mixed performance, with egg futures experiencing an upward trend, while supply and demand dynamics indicate a complex market environment [1] Supply Analysis - As of September, the inventory of laying hens remains at historically high levels. However, there is a month-on-month decline in October's laying hen inventory due to the culling rhythm and previous chick stocking conditions, although year-on-year levels remain elevated [1] Demand Analysis - Terminal demand is described as average, with traders primarily purchasing eggs as needed. Prices in the production areas are stable, while procurement costs in sales areas are also stable [1] Market Outlook - The continuous losses in the breeding sector are leading to reduced restocking enthusiasm and an increase in the culling of older hens, resulting in a slight decline in laying hen inventory. Despite a slight improvement in market sentiment, high inventory levels and the absence of excessive culling of older hens are expected to limit price increases. Recent trends show a low-level rebound in egg futures prices, but high production capacity remains a significant concern that may restrict further price increases [1]